We have all heard the phrase “those who chase flushes go home on buses”. I thought it was time to write a few words on this, when is it right and when is it wrong.

Firstly I would say that a good player will never chase anything, only take risk where there is adequate reward. We all know the risk of not making the flush but what is the right level of reward ?

There are two concepts that are widely used by Poker players to calculate reward.

1. Pot odds. A calculation as to whether or not a particular hand is worth calling or making a bet. The ratio of the amount of money in the pot to the amount of money it will cost you to call a bet. The greater the pot odds the more likely you are to call with weaker hands. The pot odds must not be disproportionate to your odds of winning the hand

2. Implied odds. Similar to pot odds, but including future bets one can reasonably expect to win. If the pot odds are say two to one and it is 4-1 against the drawing hand you may call if you expect that the opponents will make up the shortfall by making the extra bets in a later round of betting.

……and a further two for calculating risk

3. Reverse Implied odds. The odds of losing to a bigger flush and instead of a payoff you are making a further payout

4. Lockout cards. A card that completes the flush draw but pairs the board for example giving an opponent who has already made trips a full house or a player on two pairs a full house. The more players there are the more lockout cards here will be and generally speaking chasing a flush on a paired board is a bad move.

Lets look at a real example from 12^th September.

Player 1 K© Q © on the button, raises with only one caller in an early seat

Small blind fold

Big blind calls

One other caller

The pot is now 600 chips

The flop comes J© 5© 2§

Big Blind checks

The caller checks

The button bets 200 ( there are 9 hearts remaining, but he doesn’t want to see a 2 so he believes he has 8 outs, with two cards remaining roughly a 33percent probability and odds of 2:1. If there is a caller he has bet 200 to win a pot which will be 1000 ( a four to one return, a better return than his odds of winning….he believes)

The big blind folds

There is one caller player 2 , a loose and aggressive player who is short stacked

What is he calling with ? Jack something ? Two pairs or a better flush draw, do they have the A© with another heart ? Just the A© is 25 to 1 …..

The turn card comes and the board is now

J© 5© 2§ 7ª

Player 2 checks

Player 1 bets 500 (if he is called the pot will be 2000. For this bet he will be paid only 3:1 and the odds of winning are now only 5:1 however he is confident that the opponent will either fold now , or be prepared to pay a much bigger bet on the river if he calls and the flush draw hits.

The river is 9©

Player 2 moves all in for another 800

Player 1 must now pay 800 to win a pot of 3600 if he calls for pot odds of 4.5 to1. Player 2 has played this like a flush draw maybe the 9 helped and he holds a 10 8 to have made the straight and thinks it is good. But more likely he has the A© but it is still a long shot and player 1 calls

Player 2 wins with A© 4©

Player 1 was right to draw to a flush as he was getting the odds and there were no raises from a larger draw until the river or and there were no pairs on the board. Player 2 was pot committed by the end and may have made this bet just to steal, but the odds were still good. If player 1 had two lower hearts and there were many that beat it then it would have been reasonable to lay it down and not to bet and to take free cards where possible. If player 2 had a big pile of chips then the reverse implied odds would have been too great.

When considering drawing to a flush on the flop consider the following: