Would you take this bet ?

I was playing online yesterday and the following situation arose. There were 900 starters each getting 800 chips and we were down to the final 7. The blinds were 2000/ 4000 and I was chip lead and in the big blind with about 380,000 behind.

The first two players fold, lying second and third respectively.

The third player raises to 16000

The fourth calls with only 12000 behind

The Fifth calls and goes all in

The Sixth calls with only 30000 behind

I have 8© 7© …..do I call or fold? I called and here is why

Lets assume the following, the worst case, I am playing against AA in one seat, KK in another a pair of 10s and Q© J© . Each of the pairs also contains a heart in this case I am still only a 6-1 shot. I am being paid 4-1 but you can guarantee that the extra monies needed to make this a viable bet will be gained from the remaining players if I hit.

Assuming that the three pairs only contain one heart between then (the best case) but I am still playing higher suited connectors then my own chances will barely change as the additional hearts help the higher suited connectors more than me.

Finally assume that the connectors are not in the same suit as me and that over the four hands there are two other hearts out and my odds improve dramatically. I am nearer to 5-1 against and am better of that the higher suited connectors (a lot of the straight potential has vanished with the KK and 1010 already being out) and have more chance than 1010 and am on parity with KK (amazing BUT TRUE).

The flop comes J© 6§ 4©

Player 3 raises all in (40000) , either he has made the set of has an over pair.

Player 4 calls and is also all in

Player 5 is already all in

Player 6 calls and is now all in

So any five to the inside straight and any heart to the flush.

At this point in terms of probability I actually believe I’m ahead of everyone (40%) unless someone made trip jacks in which case I’m slightly worse at 30 percent. Call and see two free cards, I’m also getting paid the right amount

The last two card are K¨ 3¨

…….and the pot is won by player 4 with 52 suited !

So much for the brilliant read ! But that is poker and the logic was still sound, but logic does not cater for irrational bets.

Came second for $1800.…………

Can I tell you about the bad beat in the last hand J . Put it this way I was “Lennied” .