Odds and evens part 2
How to calculate hand odds the easy way:
Now that you've learned the proper way of calculating hand odds in Texas Hold'em, there is a shortcut that makes it much easier to calculate odds:
After you find the number of outs you have, multiply by 4 and you will get a close estimate to the percentage of hitting that hand from the Flop. Multiply by 2 instead to get a percentage estimate from the Turn. You can see these figures for yourself below:
Sample Outs and Percentages from Above Chart | |||||
4 | 9% | 17% | 10 | 5 | Inside Straight / Two Pair to Full House |
5 | 11% | 20% | 8 | 4 | One Pair to Two Pair or Set |
6 | 13% | 24% | 6.7 | 3.2 | No Pair to Pair / Two Overcards |
7 | 15% | 28% | 5.6 | 2.6 | Set to Full House or Quads |
As you can see, this is a much easier method of finding your percentage odds
Using 100 divided by the whole percentage number, such as 24%, we can easily see that 100/24 is equal to about 4. We minus 1 from that and get a rough estimate of our odds at about 3:1. Let's try this all the way through with an example:
You hold: A♣ J♠
Flop is: 5♣ T♦ K♦
Total Outs: 4 Queens (Inside Straight) + 3 Aces (Overcard) - Q♦ or A♦ = 5 Outs
Percentage for Draw = 5 Outs × 4 = 20%
Odds = (100 / 20) - 1
= 5 - 1
= 4:1
Again, 4:1 odds means that can expect to make your draw 1 out of every 5 times. If the 1 out of 5 doesn't make a ton of sense to you, think about the 1:1 odds of flipping heads or tails on a coin. You'll flip heads 50% of the time, so 1 out of every 2 times it'll come up heads.
Pot Odds and Poker Odds:
Now that you know how to calculate poker odds in terms of hand odds, you're probably wondering "what am I going to need it for?" That's a good question - this is where pot odds come into play.
Pot odds are simply the ratio of the amount of money in the pot to how much money it costs to call. If there is 100 in the pot and it takes 10 to call, your pot odds are 100:10, or 10:1. If there is 50 in the pot and it takes 10 to call, then your pot odds are 50:10 or 5:1. The higher the ratio, the better your pot odds are.
Pot odds ratios are a very useful tool to see how often you need to win the hand to break even. If there is 100 in the pot and it takes 10 to call, you must win this hand 1 out of 11 times in order to break even. The thinking goes along the lines of: If you play 11 times, it'll cost you $110, but when you win once, you will get $110 ($100 + your $10 call).
The usefulness of hand odds and pot odds becomes very apparent when you start comparing the two.
As we now know, in a flush draw, your hand odds for making your flush are 1.9 to 1. Let's say you're in a hand with a nut flush draw and it's 5chips to you on the flop to call. Do you call? Your answer should be: "What are my pot odds?"
If there are15 in the pot plus a 5 bet from an opponent, then you are getting 20:5 or 4:1 pot odds. This means that, in order to break even, you must win 1 out of every 5 times. However, with your flush draw, your odds of winning are 1 out of every 3 times! You should quickly realize that not only are you breaking even, but you're making a nice profit on this in the long run.
As you can see, you have a great reason to play this flush draw, because you'll be making money in the long run according to your hand odds and pot odds. The most fundamental point to take from this is:
If your Pot Odds are greater than your Hand Odds, then you are making a profit in the long run.
Even though you may be faced with a gut shot straight draw at times - which is a terrible draw at 5 to 1 hand odds - it can be worth it to call if you are getting pot odds greater than 5 to 1. Other times, if you have an excellent draw such as the flush draw, but someone has just raised a large amount so that your pot odds are 1:1, then you obviously should not continue trying to draw to a flush, as you will lose money in the long run. In this situation, a fold or semi-bluff is your only solution, unless you know there will be callers behind you that improve your pot odds to better than break-even.
Your ability to memorize or calculate your hand odds and pot odds will lead you to make many of the right decisions in the future - just remember that fundamental principle of profitably playing drawing hands requires that your pot odds are greater than your hand odds.
Poker Odds from the Flop to Turn and Turn to River
An important note I have to make is that many players who understand Hold'em odds tend to forget is that much of the theoretical odds calculations from the flop to the river assume there is no betting on the turn. So while it's true that for a flush draw, the odds are 1.9 to 1 that the flush will complete, you can only call a 1.9 to 1 pot on the flop if your opponent will let you see both the turn and river cards for one call. Unfortunately, most of the time, this will not be the case, so you should not calculate pot odds from the flop to the river and instead calculate them one card at a time.
To calculate your odds one card at a time, simply use the same odds that you have going from the turn to the river. So for example, your odds of hitting a flush from the turn to river is 4 to 1, which means your odds of hitting a flush from the flop to the turn is 4 to 1 as well.
To help illustrate even further, we will use the flush calculation example that shows an often-used (but incorrect) way of thinking
Example of Incorrect Pot Odds Math
As you can see from these example calculations, calling a flush draw with 2 to 1 pot odds on the flop can lead to a long term loss, if there is additional betting past the flop. Most of the time, however, there is a concept called Implied Value (which we'll get to next) that is able to help flush draws and open-ended straight draws still remain profitable even with seemingly 'bad' odds. The draws that you want to worry about the most are your long shot draws: overcards, gut shots and two-outers (hoping to make a set with your pocket pair). If you draw these hands using incorrect odds (such as flop to river odds), you will be severely punished in the long run.
Implied Value
Implied Value is a pretty concept that takes into account future betting. Like the above section, where you have to worry about your opponent betting on the turn, implied value is most often used to anticipate your opponent calling on the river. So for example, let's say that you have yet another flush draw and are being offered a 3 to 1 pot odds on the turn. Knowing that you need 4 to 1 pot odds to make this a profitable call, you decide to fold.
Aha, but wait! Here is where implied value comes into play. So, even though you're getting 3 to 1 pot odds on the turn, you can likely anticipate your opponent calling you on the river if you do hit your flush draw. This means that even though you're only getting 3 to 1 pot odds, since you anticipate your opponent calling a bet on the river, you are anticipating 4 to 1 pot odds - so you are able to make this call on the turn.
So from s practical standpoint, implied value usually means that you can subtract one bet from your drawing odds on the turn, as it anticipates your opponents calling at least one bet. In some more advanced areas, you can use implied odds as a means of making some draws that might not be profitable a majority of the time, but stand to make big payouts when they do hit. Some examples of this would be having a tight image and drawing to a gut shot against another tight player. Even though this is a horribly bad play (and hopefully you don't have to pay much for it), it can possibly be a positive play if you know your opponent will pay you off if you hit your draw - because he won't believe you played a gut shot draw. For many reasons, do not try fancy implied odds plays like these, but mentioned so that you can recognize some players who pull these plays on you as well.
Conclusion - Poker Odds
Knowing how to figure out your odds in Texas Hold'em is one of the most fundamental points in becoming a solid poker player. It takes a while to learn how to calculate them properly and to memorise them as well. The basic ones should be memorised.
For me the most valuable part of knowing how to calculate odds is knowing when to ramp up a pot so that the silly draws don’t call, they are getting bad odds if they do. Similarly only calling when you are getting the correct pay off.